So I was browsing through the internets, invented by Al Gore and came across something very inspirational for this blog post. Yes friends it’s more Jay Cutler trade analysis and it’s work I didn’t have to do as so much as to google. Charlie Casserly who provide analysis on the NFL Network got me thinking, the insulting comment in one of my blogs from the Jay Cutler trade further motivated me and ask.com gave me the substance. This in turn made me put finger tip to key board and start running off at the mouth yet again on a topic that has likely been blogged about and hammered on since the minute the trade went down.
So the question is what exactly did the Bears give up for Jay Cutler? Simple really, one and a half players based on the statistical odds of first round and third round draft picks making it in the NFL. The percentages extremely favor the Bears and no talking head former jock at ESPN is going to change the facts. So what are the facts? Pretty startling really if you’re a Denver Broncos fan.
Starting with third round draft picks, of which less than 20% succeed in the NFL. Never mind whether or not they start or go on to Pro Bowls or anything in between 80% of will be out of the league during the time frame that Jay Cutler is quarterback of the Chicago Bears.
Moving on to first round draft picks, according to the stats I researched for another blog I’m about to post about 47% have successful NFL careers. Less than half of those selected in the first round play for more than the average career length of five years. So of the two draft picks the Bears forked over to the Broncos, one of those players will have a successful NFL career. Plus the Kyle Orton who may not start for the Broncos and be just a stop gap for a QB they draft this year or next or he may even move on to a different team in his free agency year of 2010.
So realistically the Denver Broncos wound up with one sure fire player who will wind up as good as or on the same level as Jay Cutler. The other two draft picks they received from the Bears will likely flop based on the statistics of flops and failures alone. Which is remarkable in and of itself and truly shows exactly how over valued draft picks are compared to proven players at this point of the season.
The level of hype surrounding the NFL draft right now is so huge that it could easily fill up the largest stadium in the NFL with all of it’s hot air. By proxy most NFL analysts have overvalued the draft picks that the Bears have given up because they are sucked into the hype of it. Sure you have to build your team through the draft, sure the Broncos could wind up with two players from the draft picks the Bears sent over that go on to have long successful NFL careers.
In the end though the odds significantly favor Jerry Angelo. That is why Angelo most likely saved his job in Chicago and most definitely changed his legacy for the better in city of big shoulders.
Tags: 2009 NFL, 2009 NFL Draft, Chicago Bears, Chicago Bears Draft, Chicago Sports, football, Jay Cutler, Jerry Angelo, Kyle Orton, Monsters of the Midway, NFL, NFL Draft, NFL Scouting Combine, Sports